The methodology behind the research is also interesting as it’s wholly mobile. 6000 demographically balanced mobile users aged 16-34 years old across China, India, Nigeria, Brazil, the US and UK completed a survey via the Internet on their mobile device. Additional questions were asked from a larger sample size of 17,657 (aged 16-34) about social media.
Well worth a read to complement the Mary Meeker trends report.
As usual, it’s a ‘must read’ for anyone in business. The trends are laid out very plainly and although there is a US focus, the results and trends shared are global and it’s likely your country, or the countries you do most business in will be in there.
Mobile is showing ‘aggressive momentum’ – not that I’m surprised by that, but sometimes it needs to be restated and the information that Mary shares is compelling and shows just how fast that growth is. There are some surprising stats in there, including that the people of Saudi Arabia share most content on the internet. I must admit, I want to see the background data for that, but it’s curious none the less. The UK and US are way down the chart for that one compared with emerging economies.
Anyway, take a look for yourself and share with your colleagues.
Service design consultancy, Fjord, has presented its annual trends prediction. It’s in a lovely slideshare format (see below) with some thoughts on the rationale, impact and what you can do about each trend. Some of the trends resonate more with me than others. And for those who are reading this on a mobile device and, perhaps, cannot access the slideshare content, here are the key trends.
1. People are ruining everything… for traditional business. This is a big one! The technology users are doing it for themselves when it comes to crowdfunding, content creation and more. And it has never been easier. There’s no point fighting this one either. Embrace or die.
2. I belong to me. The personal data battlefield. Ah yes, the ‘Big Data’ chestnut coupled with users growing understanding of what it means to them personally, and how some of them raging against the big data machine and are demanding control of their own information.
3. Dawn of the personal ecosystem. Connected objects start to take their place right by your side. The internet of things becomes a reality. Access to data means we can make decisions about our house, our shopping, our health and more from the comfort of the palm of our hands. This creates what Fjord calls the ‘personal ecosystem’. No question, items like fitbit and Nike’s fuelband have been a runaway success and we’ll see many more of these kinds of gizmos being used in day to day life. We’ll definitely see more of these in the coming months and years.
4. Keep it simple stupid. Good old-fashioned KISS principles make a comeback. I’m wondering if this is just wishful thinking on Fjord’s part or not? I agree, they’re great principles to stand by and I wish more businesses and developers would use them but I fear humans are not always that smart! We’ll see.
5. Revolution in Retail. The online/offline distinction disappears. We are right in the heart of the retail revolution right now. If retail doesn’t change, our High Street will continue to die. Traditional retailers have been far too slow to adapt and understand the changing customer needs. Pop-up stores, virtual stores, payments on the move – they’re all here.( At the same time, I don’t want to see the High Street die and for retail to become solely a warehouse distribution business. I hope that we see some innovation this year to make the hybrid sustainable and to find new ways of invigorating the High Street. Says the former shop assistant, so I may have some personal bias here!)
6. Access is the new ownership. What does it mean to own something in the digital age? This is a really interesting area. We’ve seen the rise of rentals and subscriptions from cars to holiday homes to music to books and more. How many subscriptions can one person manage? And what happens if you have no money and lose access to everything? Where are the swapping platforms, the digital versions of our libraries? And what else will we see going to this model? I still haven’t manage to get rid of my books, CDs, vinyl, videos or DVDs. And I could certainly use the space, but the online services aren’t quite there yet that meet my personal needs in those departments. It’s only a matter of time though.
7. Learning gets personal. How being online is transforming the way people learn. This is very exciting. And game changing. What will the future of learning look like? What will a text book become? Will we need to remember things in the same way? Does this change our attention spans for the better or worse? What about accessibility for those with visual, hearing or other impairments? We’ll be looking at this in one of the Heroes of the Mobile Fringe sessions next month.
8. You talking to me? Exploring new challenges in human-machine communication. Ah, yes. Voice. What do we do with that? How many times have I found myself typing furiously on Skype or email or Facebook to an individual when it would have been a whole lot quicker and easier to talk? I’ve just gotten out of the habit and am now forcing myself back into it because, it’s, you know, productive! I still can’t see myself talking to my phone or laptop, but hey, I never thought I’d be working in the mobile industry so anything can happen. I’m interested to see what innovations happen in this area and what it takes to succeed.
9. The mobile gap. Business plays catch-up with adoption. Fjord says it so much better than I can. ‘The speed of movement to mobile has amazed everyone. But it has not been matched by the speed with which most organisations are able to monetize it.’ There’s nothing I can really add to that although Fjord does have some good tips of starting points and things to think about in the slideshare below.
10. Think like a start-up… and act like one too. Wow. That demands massive change for most big companies. One that they’re probably able to embrace in concept only rather than actual delivery. We’re talking culture change here and that’s hard to do. It’s worth thinking about though and anything that brings down barriers in companies and aids collaboration, serendipity and innovation, I’m all for and I would definitely encourage. Not everyone is ready to be in a start-up though so you may lose people along the way…
Thanks for the food for thought, Fjord. What do you think?
1. Convenience becomes paramount: convenience will exceed entertainment as the primary mobile content and commerce driver globally.
I don’t think this is new for 2013. We’ve seen an increase in mcommerce in the last few years and convenience is the main factor. The smartphone (or tablet) is the nearest/most convenient / quickest to boot up device to get stuff done. It’s a good enough experience to make the shopping process successful. I find myself squinting at my tiny mobile screen for bargains on eBay, when clearly, my laptop or large tablet would be better for the job, but my phone is nearer and I can’t be bothered to move. I’m guessing I’m not only in this consumer behaviour. This can only get bigger.
2. Shift in Payments: operator billing will be overtaken by other mobile payment systems in developed markets.
This isn’t news to me either. At least not when looking at the UK market. The rise of iOS, Android, apps and mcommerce (as in shopping for stuff that isn’t mobile content) is all being done in the online way which is credit or debit card or PayPal. I have never really understood why operators thought they deserved such a huge amount in revenue share when it comes to mobile payments. The value exchange has never seemed fair to me, even less so now when the web is very real on mobile devices. It’s a tough gig for the operators. They’re losing control and/or money in all areas of the business, or so it seems. We still need them to make the infrastructure work but I wonder how they will create new value in the coming years when mobile payments isn’t it?
3. Big Data will drive mobile engagement: widespread rollout of personalised recommendations and alerts based on context and behavioural data enabled by mobile.
Big Data is the new black for everything it seems. Everyone I know who is in tech, and a lot of those who aren’t, are bandying around the phrase ‘Big Data’. I wholeheartedly agree it’s important but most businesses, even large ones with deep pockets, don’t really understand how to data mine in a meaningful way – at least not yet. Soooooo much data has been collected by our network operators, our loyalty card providers, our banks, our ISPs, our email companies, Google, Facebook, foursquare and more. How do you make sense of it all? So I wonder if the breakthrough in 2013 will be that we’ll begin to understand this Big Data thing better this year and make meaningful business decisions from it rather than the stabs in the dark I’ve seen to date.
4. Trust as a critical asset: consumer trust around privacy and data collection will become a critical asset for apps and brands in 2013.
This was an emerging theme last year. MEF covered this in their Heroes of the Mobile Fringe podcast session in Barcelona (blog post here). Security, data, privacy, trust are all murkily lumped together in the consumer’s eyes. They’re different things, but certainly overlap and these are most definitely very real issues. But they’re not just related to mobile or to tech. What we do in our offline worlds also matters in our online worlds and vice versa. Even the most clued-up of us can get caught out. Cloning is a very real issue and Android is full of holes – largely due to poor implementation by OEMs and lazy app developers. And also down to human nature. Ultimately, if your choice is to get instant gratification from a mobile app right here right now vs. not, the chances are, the average punter, will take a risk and download the app or game. How can you protect someone who is making that split second decision? And how can we track what data is being collected, by whom, when and where does it get stored, how is it used etc.? It is an absolute minefield. How do you correct it if it’s wrong, how do you remove it, what happens with it when you’re dead and buried? This one will run and run I think.
5. Usage Convergence: The dividing line between consumer and enterprise-focused services will melt, transforming the way companies use mobile.
I’m not sure what I think about this one. We’ve certainly seen convergence of devices in that business people have chosen to use iPhone as a business device and BlackBerry as a consumer device so I guess we’ll see something play out here when it comes to services. Anyone else have a view?
6. Growth in health and education services: 2013 will see a significant uptake in the use of health and education services, based on interactive mobile content and device penetration. Growth markets will drive this but also developed markets will complement and develop existing systems.
No question there is investment going into these areas. And where resources go, things tend to happen. This is no bad thing. Health and education are critical to modern society. I can see growth markets driving the education element, I’m yet to know where the drivers are for mhealth services. I’m certainly keeping an eye on both sectors.
7. Crowd-sourcing of mobile content: mass-curation of content, such as large-scale photo integration enabling crowd-sourcing of public events imagery, will emerge as a defining mobile apps category, but will experience scaling issues, including transparency and privacy concerns.
I’ve seen several services try to do this but have been unable to get any kind of critical mass to date. I’m not sure they will. For everyone at a mass event to use the same app to do something is going to be hard unless it’s something we all use already like Googlemaps, Facebook, or Twitter. Would I download an app so I could share a photo to a pool? Erm, no. But maybe I’m just too old for this. I’m also not convinced of the longevity of the app ecosystem. It’s seriously hard to make money with apps and the trend I’m seeing is a move to web and less of a focus on apps. But maybe I’m biased because I forget to use pretty much every app I’ve ever downloaded save for a handful that I use on a weekly, if not daily basis.
8. The March of Multi-Screens: In 2013 much of the mobile ecosystem’s energy will target the integration of multiple connected screens, such as TV companion services, to deliver a consistent and complimentary experience across every connected device.
Seamless synchronisation seems to be talked about a lot but not delivered that well. Friends rave about how kindle has a seamless synch experience and I know many people would like to see that same attention to detail for other services but we’re not quite there yet. It’s tricky to do, but we will see it as we work out how to do this stuff better. And if our M2M world with our connected fridges and cars is to work, we really do have to sort this stuff out.
9. Third mobile ecosystems: Windows Phone 8, Firefox OS and BlackBerry 10 will make progress globally, especially in growth markets.
There is everything to play for when it comes to mobile ecosystems. I’ve had a play with all three of the above, and they all have their strengths and will appeal to different groups of customers. We have also heard that there’s an Ubuntu phone coming out (not sure why we need one, but hey, what would I know), Bada and Tizen are on the market, and I’m interested to see if Jolla can break through. Nokia’s N9 Meego device was a thing of beauty and maybe Jolla, son of Meego, may make headway. And with news that Samsung is moving from Android to Tizen, the game definitely isn’t over.
10. China is coming: Chinese mobile content and commerce vendors will expand into global markets, but will struggle with the complexities of mobile ecosystems and IPR.
China is most definitely coming. No question. I am most definitely not qualified to comment beyond that. Anyone else care to add anything on this point?
I also read Dean Bubley’s Telco anti-trends for 2013 which also make for an interesting read.
Comments and discussion welcome.
‘The analysis, of 74,000 story entries in a BBC Radio 2 competition, also reveals the impact of technology. The research finds that of nearly 300 instances of the word "blackberry", almost half referred to phones. Technology was also an integral part of plots in the stories, with characters "Googling" for answers rather than looking in books and using apps rather than rabbit holes or magical wardrobes to enter fantasy worlds.’
The study makes for a fascinating read and confirms that children are still imaginative and still inspired to write, read and tell stories. I wonder how many of them are now reading on a digital screen – be that a phone, a tablet, an eBook reader or a laptop?
There’s some background to the competition on the OUP website http://www.oup.com/oxed/children/500words-competition/ . The full competition website is at http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio2/500words/2012/ where you can read or listen to the winning stories (there are plenty to choose from and you could do worse than load these up on your kindle) and you can also download a PDF with the findings from the research. http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/radio2/shows/evans/bbc500words_oupfindings.pdf
I teach mobile marketing to both professionals and students and the more I talk about the digital world we are now inhabiting and the more I observe the impact it's having on our day to day lives (including my own), the more I agree with Trend Central's latest findings around CyberStatus in conjunction with the launch of the Cassandra Report.
