AI and the Frontier Paradox

This thought leadership piece by Konstantine Buhler at Sequoia is well worth a read. I remember a conversation over a decade ago about AI with futurist, David Wood and he told me at the time that the dot on Google Maps showing us where we were was a type of AI. We don't call it that any longer - it just works on our phone and the technology is invisible - as many of the best technology tools are. I can certainly see how it will become quite commonplace to use tools like Bard or ChatGPT and not think anything of it. It will just be part of our routine use of phones, laptops and smart speakers.

I'm now beginning to see the rise of many of these tools as, perhaps, more like the switch from DOS to Windows - a much more intuitive interface with which to do what you need to do to get your tasks done. Or the switch from using laptops to phones which gave access to the internet and digital capabilities to many millions more people across the world. 

And yet, what is coming feels like it's so much more than that and more far-reaching in terms of giving anyone the ability to engage with digital tools using talking or text chat. That feels revolutionary to me rather than evolutionary. Or is it way over-hyped and it will all calm down again in a few months? After all, this AI thing has been in the human imagination for more than a century with the first place about 'robots' being written in 1921. And it has been in development for more than 70 years. We are now living in the future that scientists were imagining back in the 1950s and 1960s.

https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/ai-paradox-perspective/

Taking stock about job prospects

It probably comes as no surprise that the end of January is prime time for quitting one's job. Such a big decision doesn't come easily and it can take several months to get to that decision and to find another job to go to. Often the Christmas break is the catalyst for change too. Taking time off over Christmas gives you chance to take stock of what you want to do for the next year or years.

From the work I did a couple of years back about the Future of Work, there is not only a skills gap in the UK, especially where technology is concerned, but technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, mobile computing, cloud computing, internet of things and robots is also impacting on the kind of work we will be doing and what jobs will look like in the near future. I touched on this a little in last month's posts, 'What do you do when your boss is an algorithm?" and 'What three things should we teach in schools?'.

And it got me thinking about what skills are required to future-proof oneself and then I was reminded about the World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs report from January 2016. Even though it's two years old, it's still relevant. And rather handily, there's a graphic showing what the Top 10 skills required were in 2015 and the ones anticipated in 2020 (which isn't very far away).

Interestingly, complex problem solving is still number one. However, critical thinking and creativity have moved up the charts to 2nd and 3rd position. Critical thinking and creativity are things that Artificial Intelligence cannot do. There's no question that computers can crunch data in ways humans can't, and a computer can even create artistic works. A death metal album from DaDaBots is one of the latest offerings. You can read more about that here. However, the computer that has 'learned' about complex death metal will not wake up one day and decide to create an album of music that is completely original. In the same way a computer that can generate Picasso-like pictures, will not suddenly wake up the next day and generate the kind of artwork that Tracey Emin might come up with.

This stresses to me that in order to be future proof, we need to nurture our creative sides more. In fact, one school in Bradford, in the North of England, found that they improved scores in mathematics without teaching more maths but by spending more time on learning and practising music. It's an incredibly powerful case study and can be found over on Big Think.

So if you're thinking about what your next career move might be, or you're a student and wondering what prospects are ahead of you when it comes to work, you could do worse than consider what skills are required and gen up on the Future of Jobs free report from the World Economic Forum. The full report is here or you can check out the Executive Summary here (PDF).

Day 5/25 Blogmas

What do you do when your boss is an algorithm?

I was lucky enough to go to Business of Software's great event in London with entrepreneur and best-selling author, Eric Ries, talking about his new book, The Startup Way. The house was absolutely packed which is a testament both to the popularity of Eric Ries and how well Mark Littlewood and his team organise their Business of Software series of events.

I'm still mulling over much of what Ries was saying and I haven't yet read his book. The question that really stuck in my mind was about what workers will do when their boss is an AI or an algorithm. I've thought quite a lot about working with an AI as a colleague. Arguably, we're already doing that to some degree with our use of online tools such as search, productivity tools, graphic design software etc.

My boss is an algorithm
But what if the algorithm is our boss? Ries cited the example of an Uber driver. Who is the driver's boss? Who do they report to? Who tells them what to do? The answer, to all intents and purposes, is an algorithm (putting aside recent UK legislation about their legal status).

Imagine the scenario whereby a customer uses the app to hail a taxi in a high traffic area where there is a choice of driver. The algorithm decides which taxi driver(s) to show that too. That could be based on reviews (perhaps unverified), where the driver was the previous night, how frequently the driver chooses to drive for Uber, how safely the driver drives, who the driver is connected to on social networks and much more. And in that instance, who do you complain to anyway and what could they do? These algorithms are getting ever more complicated and anyway, this isn't a technical bug, this is an ethical question as much as anything.

I'm afraid, I don't have the answers, but I'm thinking about the implications of this in different aspects of work life.

Free book giveaway
Everyone at the BoS event last week got a copy of The Startup Way. I was lucky enough to come away with an extra copy which will be given away tomorrow evening at Swedish Beers in London as part of the Robot Ping Pong challenge. I do hope you can join us!

Eric Ries' Lean Startup talk & BoS archive
You can see Eric Ries's talk for BoS from 2010 when he'd just written Lean Startup. It's well worth revisiting.

Business of Software has archived all their previous talks and it's a fantastic resource. You can check it out here.

Day 21/30 NaBloPoMo (publishing a little ahead of schedule!)

Here are some easy to sew Christmas presents (written by ai-writer.com)

(This post has been generated wholly by http://ai-writer.com. I've done this as an experiment.)

Just afternoon and a few basic sewing skills are enough to turn a couple of homeless socks into a cozy psine-and what's better than a puppy for Christmas? [0]

DIY Gifts To Sew For Friends - quick and easy sewing designs and free designs for the best ideas and gifts - Creative step-by-step guides for beginners - nice home decoration, accessories, kitchen appliances and do-it-yourself do-it-yourselfers. [1]

Made from recycled fabric strips and padded buttons, the floral clips are an easy workmanship and a fashionable Christmas present. [2]

Do-it-yourself clothes, DIY clothes, sewing patterns, fast crafts, tutorials, DIY tutorials. [3]

Ideal sewing tutorials for beginners with easy patterns to make great Christmas presents for friends and the whole family. [4]

Ideal sewing tutorials for beginners with free patterns to make great Christmas presents for friends and the whole family. [5]

Let yourself be inspired by your PDF and prepare a great Christmas gift in the form of small handmade gifts (materials for Christmas! [6]

Christmas projects include gingerbreads, cones and a modern Christmas wreath, as well as simple projects that can be gifts, such as felt frames for buttons and picture frames that are ideal for children to give to their grandparents. [7]

Do it yourself Kitchen sewing projects - Folding pot holder - Easy sewn Tutorial and models for towels, napkins, napkins, aprons and fresh Christmas gifts for friends and family - Rustic, modern and creative home furnishing ideas! [8]

DIY Gifts To Sew For Friends - quick and easy sewing designs and free designs for the best ideas and gifts - Creative step-by-step guides for beginners - nice home decoration, accessories, kitchen. [9]

List of handmade tailoring projects, including Christmas stockings, decorations, cushions, gifts and table-top races. [10]

Ideal for the child to be able to renovate a Christmas tree once and for all (today you probably won't even want to give it as a gift, right? [11]

Made of fabric remnants, this is close to zero cost, but this makes it will be an incredibly sweet and funny DIY gift for a child or adult, depending on the material chosen. [12]

Package your sweet fragrant vintage glass jar bombs with a custom plate to make the presentation even more unique. [13]

For the bookmark, you'll need to cut out two slightly smaller pieces of paper, as you can see from the video and stick them together. [14]

Instead, reuse it as a personalized stocking for someone special on your gift list, and then fill your stockings with some little wrapped surprises. [15]

DIY Sewing Projects for the Kitchen - Guide and design for towels, napkins, aprons and cold Christmas presents for friends and family - Rustic, Modern and Creative (Sewing by instant gifts). [16]

Christmas sock stitched lean sewn: A fourth fat of the main fabric (format) A fourth fat of fabric lining (work white smooth fabric is fine) A small amount of contrast fabric for Bracelet Calza A small amount of button ribbon A. [17]

For an aromatic, beautiful and easy to use gingerbread, apply the orange and grapefruit cloves and place them on cake racks or decorative platters with the addition of greenery. [18]

Customise the fabrics to match the style of the recipient and give the bag as a gift on its own or fill it with a few little surprises to make your holiday real. [19]

Create a thematic gift basket for newlyweds, students or new homeowners, you can create a basket with a few inexpensive discounted items. [20]

The computer and scanner are all you need to turn your favourite collector stamps (such as stamps) into printable designs that you can use to turn cheap shoppers' boards into useful decorative accessories. [21]

It is not only a sweet and well thought-out gift, but it can be a special gift depending on what you decorate the frame. [22]

Sources

[0] https://www.marthastewart.com/276324/christmas-sewing-projects
[1] https://www.pinterest.com.au/explore/gifts-to-sew/
[2] http://www.bhg.com/christmas/gifts/easy-sew-christmas-gifts/
[3] https://www.pinterest.com/explore/christmas-sewing-gifts/
[4] http://www.applegreencottage.com/2016/10/DIY-Christmas-gifts-easy-free-sewing-patterns.html
[5] http://www.applegreencottage.com/2016/10/DIY-Christmas-gifts-easy-free-sewing-patterns.html
[6] http://www.applegreencottage.com/2017/09/DIY-Christmas-presents-sewing-patterns.html
[7] https://www.interweave.com/store/quick-easy-last-minute-christmas-gifts-to-sew
[8] https://www.pinterest.com.au/explore/christmas-sewing-gifts/
[9] https://www.pinterest.com/explore/christmas-sewing-gifts/
[10] https://www.pinterest.com.au/explore/christmas-sewing-gifts/
[11] http://www.applegreencottage.com/2016/10/DIY-Christmas-gifts-easy-free-sewing-patterns.html
[12] http://www.applegreencottage.com/2017/09/DIY-Christmas-presents-sewing-patterns.html
[13] http://www.hgtv.com/design/make-and-celebrate/handmade/55-crafty-handmade-gift-ideas-pictures
[14] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyMJgpgmQ0o
[15] http://www.hgtv.com/design/make-and-celebrate/handmade/55-crafty-handmade-gift-ideas-pictures
[16] https://au.pinterest.com/pin/512988213796483743/
[17] https://au.pinterest.com/pin/512988213796483743/
[18] http://www.marthastewart.com/856465/easy-christmas-crafts
[19] http://www.hgtv.com/design/make-and-celebrate/handmade/55-crafty-handmade-gift-ideas-pictures
[20] https://www.wikihow.com/Make-Your-Own-Christmas-Gifts
[21] http://www.hgtv.com/design/make-and-celebrate/handmade/55-crafty-handmade-gift-ideas-pictures
[22] https://www.wikihow.com/Make-Your-Own-Christmas-Gifts

(It's not great is it.... See next blogpost for some more thoughts on this).

 Day 4/30 NaBloPoMo 2017

47% of jobs will disappear in the next 25 years according to Oxford University

Having spent some time researching the impact of new technologies on the work we do in the last couple of years, there is much in this article from BigThink that resonates.

We will, no doubt, lose jobs. Others will replace them but not at the same rate as the loss, I suspect.

I believe blue collar workers will fare better. That workforce has always had to adapt and is likely better prepared for change than their white collar counterparts.

Those working in legal services, accountancy, medicine will all see their jobs change drastically as more and more aspects of their jobs are taken over by software. Computers are already better at diagnosing cancer, standard contracts can be dealt with by a virtual lawyer. Even music for adverts can be written effectively by software and much faster and much cheaper than a human musician. So even the creative industries aren't necessarily safe.  Companies are on a constant mission to create efficiencies and to save money so they can create the most value for their shareholders. They wouldn't be doing their job properly if they weren't.

In the short term, robots and software will be colleagues rather than a total replacement and that will present its challenges. What will your relationship be with your robot co-worker, for example? For some this will be a blessing as it means less human interaction. (Many of my friends prefer online shopping for this reason). For others, a curse as they miss having people around them for company. I already have friends who freely admit they have a relationship with Amazon Echo's Alexa and if you haven't watched the film, Her, you should! It is entirely possible to have a relationship with a robot. On my visit to San Francisco last year, I found myself talking to a house robot as if it were a pet cat. Turns out it was Kuri and it has been a hit at this year's CES.

Longer term, the picture probably doesn't look as rosy. Regardless, change is afoot. That means we need to learn adaptability, flexibility and how to share the resources we have without demonising 'the poor' or putting students into debt learning things that will be obsolete by the time they graduate. It's a difficult topic to address as it impacts absolutely everything from what infrastructure we need, how we find meaning in life and what we do with our time. Lots to think about as this future gets ever nearer.

The population and workforce is aging. What are we going to do about it?

An infrequent look into Google+ this afternoon brought up a post by Dick Stroud commenting on the increase of UK workers over the age of 50. Our population is aging and the proportion of older men and women working is also increasing. We're also living longer and our pensions don't kick in until we're older (assuming you have one at all - can't see the gig economy being big on pensions).

Here's a summary from a UK Government report from November 2015

• Employment of workers over the age of 50 has grown significantly over the past decades.  
• The employment rate for people aged 50 to 64 has grown from 55.4 to 69.6 per cent over the past 30 years, an increase of 14.2 percentage points. 
• The employment rate for people aged 65 and over has doubled over the past 30 years, from 4.9 to 10.2 per cent, an increase of 5.3 percentage points. 
• The largest increases in employment rates over the last 30 years were for two groups: for women aged 60-64 the rate grew from 17.7 to 40.7 per cent; and for women aged 55-59 it grew from 48.6 to 68.9 per cent. 
• The employment rate gap between men aged 50-64 and women of the same age dropped from close to 28 percentage points 30 years ago to 10.9 percentage points in 2015. 
• The proportion of people aged 70-74 in employment almost doubled over the past 10 years (from 5.5 to 9.9 per cent), and numbers in employment more than doubled from 124,000 to 258,000. 
• Part of the increase in the numbers of workers over 50 can be explained by demographic changes, but growth in employment rates shows that the number of people over 50 in employment has risen faster than the population over 50.

You can read the full report here (PDF).

As I wander around the mobile marketing and advertising sector and big agency world, it's a young workforce. If you wander around the tech start-up scene, the workforce feels as young, if not younger, even if the founders are not young themselves.

I've seen from many of my peers from the early days of the mobile marketing industry that they are now becoming advisors, non-executive directors and mentors. I've done this myself and am always on the lookout for more of these opportunities. (Get in touch if you know of one!)

That's all well and good, but not everyone in the workforce ends up at the top of the pyramid. What about everyone else? What role is there for older workers in our mobile marketing world? Not that 50 is old, but to a 22 year old entrepreneur, that might feel very old indeed. And although ageist recruitment practices are illegal, they still happen all the time as those recruiting tend to recruit in their own image. It's human nature to an extent but also down to a lack of thought about actual requirements. And some good old-fashioned prejudice in some cases.

How do we find a balance between nurturing new talent whilst also benefitting from years of experience and keeping people gainfully employed through their whole career rather than relegating people to years on benefits or working hand to mouth? 

Is this a leadership task? Is this about changing the culture to be more inclusive? Is it rethinking assumptions about age and capability? Or is it a moot point in light of robots and AI taking our jobs and we get a Universal Basic Income instead?

If you ever want to see your assumption about age and capability be challenged, go see Glenda Jackson in King Lear at the Old Vic Theatre in London (I think it's returns only but you might get lucky). It's an incredibly challenging role and Glenda is magnificent in it, and absolutely at the top of her game. She celebrated her 80th birthday in May of this year. Yes, her 80th. I was gobsmacked when I realised that.  

I'm told that the generation gap in media doesn't really exist any more as we have access to the same media thanks to the likes of Facebook, Twitter et al. Can we make the same true of work opportunities?

So to the under 50s, especially if you are an entrepreneur or you recruit in the tech sector, what can you do to attract, retain, recruit and benefit from some older additions to your workforce?

And to the over 50s, especially the women over 50, don't give up on yourself! And don't give up on the chance to work in this vibrant, growing sector.

And yes, yes, I know that there are physical limitations as you get older. But you can have physical or mental limitations at 21 too. And, you know, tech can alleviate some of that.

Recent event round-ups from my collaboration with Lloyd Davis/Tuttle Club & Truphone.

I recently held a series of five events with my friend and collaborator, Lloyd Davis, at Truphone's rather splendid offices in Canary Wharf. I did a round-up of all the events over on my Heroes of Mobile website so please follow the links below to see the videos of the talks and to find out more about what we covered and links to further coverage and reading.

Future of Mobile:Artificial Intelligence with James Tagg

Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence with Benjamin Ellis

Future of Work: Blockchain with Imogen Heap (yes, that Imogen Heap)

Future of Work: Drones, Robots and Internet of Things with Priya Prakash

Future of Work: Augmented and Virtual Reality with Eva Pascoe

Lloyd and I are working up some new event themes for the New Year. If you're interested in hosting and sponsoring the next series in the UK in the Spring (it doesn't have to be London), please get in touch.

Heroes of Mobile Goes to Leeds 3 & 4 November

I can't believe it's November already and it's just nine weeks to Christmas. Where does the year go? But as the evenings start to draw in, it's time to gather round campfires and tell ourselves stories about the battles we've won and lost, the monsters that lurk in the dark and the bright future that is waiting for us on the other side of winter. 

Ok, so maybe we don't have an actual campfire this time but we do have a beautiful converted Methodist Chapel in Leeds to hang out in. So this means that November is chock full of brain food from the team who brought you the Hacklands festival in August (you missed a cracker if you weren't there) – I'll be working again with Lloyd Davis of Tuttle Club fame, the fab aql team in Leeds and and James Tagg of Truphone.  

On Tuesday and Wednesday next week, we're all up in Leeds for the Heroes of the Mobile Fringe Goes North series – two days of talks and conversations about the future of work and mobile tech with contributions from Lesley Cowley, Bernard Ginns and Patrick Smith and includes the legendary Swedish Beers for the first time in the North of England. I'm also co-hosting a fabulous ladies lunch at Harvey Nicks. Fellow ladies in mobile and tech, you don't want to miss this! 

Come to as many of the sessions as you like, they're all free to attend and our friends at aql will make you very welcome indeed. There's plenty of space to hang out and co-work between sessions too.

Tuesday's sessions

10.00 for a 10.30 start to 12.30 Future of Work: Open Space with Lloyd Davis

14.00 to 15.00 Nothing Great is Easy with Patrick Smith

15.30 to 18.00 Innovation on the Fringe Goes to Leeds 

18.30 onwards Swedish Beers

Wednesday's sessions

10.00 for a 10.30 start to 12.30 Future of Mobile: Talk and Open Space with James Tagg and Lloyd Davis

12.30 to 14.30 Ladies Lunch with Lesley Cowley

14.30 to 15.15 The Yorkshire Post: The Journey from Print to Digital with Bernard Ginns

15.30 to 17.30 The Future of Mobile Advertising: Open Space with yours truly and Lloyd Davis

To RSVP, please click on the links above or go to http://heroesofmobileleeds.strikingly.com where all the registration forms are handily listed in one place.

And if you fancy making the trip from down South to Leeds, then may I recommend using http://hotwire.com for your hotel. I got a great deal there when I booked last week. Expedia also had a comprehensive list that included B&Bs and not just the big hotels.